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Red167
493029.7
179646.8
301561.6
Blue128
412240.9
279145.7
457122.7
87%Model gave it13%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15011050100200167128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.60.6
60.761.3
Auto15.8
Teleop36.5
End9.3
red by 15.9
2791
#30
45.70.4
45.445.8
Auto12.3
Teleop26.7
End6.6
Second
46.80.6
45.946.5
Auto12.5
Teleop26.2
End8.1
red by 5.9
40.90.4
40.741.1
Auto11.7
Teleop21.0
End8.2
Third
4930
#39
29.70.6
28.829.4
Auto6.6
Teleop17.4
End5.8
red by 7.0
4571
#28
22.70.4
22.422.9
Auto5.1
Teleop9.9
End7.6