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Red192
494660.6
872930.5
467871.1
Blue166
220053.9
205683.7
499229.6
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions163181050100200250300350192166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4678
Unranked
71.10.7
70.270.9
Auto19.3
Teleop42.9
End7.1
blue by 12.6
2056
Unranked
83.70.1
83.783.6
Auto20.1
Teleop54.4
End7.8
Second
4946
Unranked
60.60.7
59.660.3
Auto15.4
Teleop35.3
End8.5
red by 6.7
2200
Unranked
53.90.1
53.853.8
Auto16.0
Teleop29.0
End8.5
Third
8729
Unranked
30.50.7
29.630.3
Auto9.1
Teleop12.8
End8.6
red by 0.9
4992
Unranked
29.60.1
29.629.5
Auto8.8
Teleop13.4
End7.7