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Red150
124149.1
430823.5
132550.9
Blue107
415242.6
999918.0
201346.7
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13011850100150200150107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.90.6
50.150.7
Auto13.7
Teleop29.1
End7.0
red by 4.2
46.70.0
46.746.7
Auto13.5
Teleop24.3
End8.3
Second
49.10.6
48.348.9
Auto11.5
Teleop29.3
End7.6
red by 6.5
42.60.0
42.642.6
Auto11.6
Teleop22.9
End8.2
Third
4308
#16
23.50.6
22.723.3
Auto9.2
Teleop9.9
End4.8
red by 5.5
9999
#20
18.00.0
18.018.0
Auto5.6
Teleop7.7
End5.1