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Red80
769031.2
285220.5
131036.2
Blue102
771226.6
697834.4
430816.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9278406010012014016080102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.20.1
35.135.0
Auto11.0
Teleop15.6
End9.6
red by 1.8
34.40.5
33.734.2
Auto12.3
Teleop13.7
End8.4
Second
31.20.1
30.130.0
Auto10.4
Teleop15.1
End5.7
red by 4.6
26.60.5
25.926.4
Auto7.2
Teleop14.4
End5.1
Third
2852
#19
20.50.1
19.519.3
Auto8.5
Teleop5.0
End7.1
red by 4.2
4308
#26
16.40.5
15.616.1
Auto5.9
Teleop7.4
End3.1