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Red115
142535.7
646515.4
247146.9
Blue59
412721.8
853226.7
263521.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107722040608012014016011559

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.90.3
46.146.4
Auto13.0
Teleop25.3
End8.6
red by 20.2
26.70.3
27.226.9
Auto8.0
Teleop11.5
End7.3
Second
35.70.3
34.935.2
Auto13.2
Teleop15.9
End6.6
red by 13.8
2635
#15
21.90.3
22.422.1
Auto6.8
Teleop8.8
End6.3
Third
6465
#20
15.40.4
14.514.9
Auto5.7
Teleop5.9
End3.8
blue by 6.4
4127
#10
21.80.3
22.322.0
Auto5.4
Teleop9.2
End7.2