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Red125
214752.7
154048.6
129422.8
Blue128
468249.6
49249.9
131864.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions129140100150200125128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2147
#26
52.70.2
48.848.6
Auto12.5
Teleop31.8
End7.9
blue by 12.1
64.80.1
56.156.0
Auto16.1
Teleop39.2
End7.9
Second
1540
#23
48.60.2
45.945.8
Auto13.5
Teleop26.2
End8.6
blue by 1.3
492
#41
49.90.1
42.842.6
Auto13.7
Teleop29.7
End6.1
Third
1294
#49
22.80.2
27.927.8
Auto5.5
Teleop11.4
End5.9
blue by 26.9
49.60.1
33.333.2
Auto15.3
Teleop26.7
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
19%Sustainability oddsEarned33%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
86%Activation oddsEarned90%Activation oddsMissed