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Red130
204666.6
406138.9
644341.3
Blue135
366357.8
75333.6
371143.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions160132100150200250130135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2046
#27
66.61.5
66.164.6
Auto16.7
Teleop39.7
End8.0
red by 8.8
57.80.2
55.455.5
Auto14.9
Teleop34.3
End8.4
Second
6443
#24
41.31.5
43.341.9
Auto13.3
Teleop24.6
End3.1
blue by 2.0
3711
#15
43.30.2
39.639.8
Auto12.3
Teleop22.1
End8.3
Third
4061
#17
38.91.5
39.738.2
Auto9.3
Teleop23.3
End6.5
red by 5.4
753
#34
33.60.2
32.732.9
Auto9.6
Teleop17.9
End6.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
90%Sustainability oddsEarned79%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
92%Activation oddsMissed79%Activation oddsEarned