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Red157
420649.0
367621.2
174549.6
Blue102
636938.1
284836.8
586625.1
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions124104406080140160180200157102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.60.8
47.748.5
Auto9.4
Teleop30.2
End10.1
red by 11.6
38.10.0
38.038.1
Auto10.1
Teleop20.6
End7.4
Second
49.00.8
47.047.8
Auto12.7
Teleop29.8
End6.5
red by 12.2
36.80.0
36.736.8
Auto11.2
Teleop20.2
End5.4
Third
3676
#33
21.20.8
19.220.1
Auto5.4
Teleop10.5
End5.3
blue by 3.9
5866
#26
25.10.0
25.025.1
Auto5.8
Teleop10.6
End8.7