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Red104
258316.3
637744.6
331051.0
Blue121
284838.6
636939.8
887919.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12499050150200250300104121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.00.2
51.251.0
Auto11.9
Teleop30.5
End8.0
red by 11.2
39.80.3
39.439.7
Auto10.4
Teleop20.3
End9.2
Second
44.60.2
44.844.6
Auto11.3
Teleop25.8
End7.1
red by 6.0
2848
#10
38.60.3
38.238.5
Auto13.3
Teleop20.6
End4.6
Third
2583
#19
16.30.2
16.516.3
Auto5.7
Teleop6.3
End4.4
blue by 2.9
8879
#20
19.20.3
18.719.0
Auto6.5
Teleop7.7
End5.3