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Red79
59728.7
348013.9
126143.1
Blue127
35340.0
427232.7
223134.4
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8211505010015020079127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1261
#29
43.10.1
37.037.1
Auto12.6
Teleop28.5
End2.0
red by 3.1
353
#3
40.01.3
35.737.0
Auto12.4
Teleop24.0
End3.6
Second
597
#16
28.70.1
27.327.4
Auto9.9
Teleop17.0
End1.9
blue by 5.7
2231
#36
34.41.3
31.532.8
Auto11.5
Teleop18.8
End4.1
Third
3480
#65
13.90.1
13.613.7
Auto5.6
Teleop7.0
End1.3
blue by 18.8
4272
#12
32.71.3
33.134.4
Auto9.5
Teleop21.6
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
81%Melody oddsEarned99%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed53%Ensemble oddsMissed