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Red54
55645.4
99868.9
743321.3
Blue38
650816.6
533111.4
99919.1
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4039203050605438

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.30.3
21.021.3
Auto7.2
Teleop12.2
End1.9
red by 4.7
6508
#13
16.60.0
16.716.6
Auto6.6
Teleop8.4
End1.6
Second
8.90.4
8.58.9
Auto5.9
Teleop2.4
End0.7
blue by 2.5
11.40.0
11.411.4
Auto4.5
Teleop6.1
End0.7
Third
5564
#14
5.40.3
5.15.4
Auto2.2
Teleop1.6
End1.6
blue by 3.6
9991
#21
9.10.0
9.19.1
Auto3.3
Teleop4.6
End1.2