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Red77
99931.8
999021.9
478823.6
Blue52
650910.2
99876.0
919121.1
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions503602060801007752

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4788
Unranked
23.60.2
23.323.5
Auto9.9
Teleop12.7
End1.0
red by 2.5
9191
Unranked
21.10.4
20.921.2
Auto5.6
Teleop14.3
End1.3
Second
9990
Unranked
21.90.3
21.521.8
Auto5.3
Teleop15.4
End1.3
red by 11.8
6509
Unranked
10.20.3
9.910.3
Auto5.1
Teleop3.1
End1.9
Third
9993
Unranked
1.80.3
1.41.7
Auto-0.6
Teleop2.0
End0.4
blue by 4.2
9987
Unranked
6.00.4
5.76.1
Auto3.4
Teleop2.0
End0.6