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Red22
385316.1
775512.5
Blue65
999912.8
641329.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions454525303540505560652265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
16.11.6
18.717.1
Auto6.2
Teleop8.7
End1.2
blue by 13.2
29.20.8
25.826.6
Auto8.7
Teleop19.8
End0.8
Second
7755
#11
12.51.6
11.610.0
Auto5.7
Teleop4.9
End1.9
blue by 0.2
9999
#15DQ
12.81.3
10.711.9
Auto8.8
Teleop2.6
End1.3
Third
6.62.7
10.78.0
Auto3.7
Teleop2.6
End0.3
blue by 2.7
9.31.3
7.28.4
Auto6.4
Teleop2.1
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
31%Melody oddsMissed32%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
18%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed