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Red37
364816.9
50599.7
45655.7
Blue44
950115.5
775513.8
50258.5
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions28340204060803744

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3648
#15
16.90.7
11.712.4
Auto4.7
Teleop10.6
End1.6
red by 1.5
9501
#23
15.50.4
11.011.5
Auto6.1
Teleop7.7
End1.6
Second
5059
#24
9.70.7
6.06.6
Auto5.2
Teleop3.9
End0.5
blue by 4.1
7755
#18
13.80.4
11.512.0
Auto4.5
Teleop7.9
End1.4
Third
4565
#36
5.70.7
8.49.0
Auto2.3
Teleop1.8
End1.6
blue by 2.8
5025
#38
8.50.4
7.58.0
Auto5.8
Teleop2.1
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
8%Melody oddsMissed12%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsMissed