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Red64
265818.7
248531.8
945225.9
Blue68
99906.8
473836.6
157215.8
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8254020401001201401606468

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.80.5
29.428.9
Auto10.9
Teleop18.3
End2.6
blue by 4.9
36.60.3
33.232.9
Auto11.5
Teleop22.6
End2.6
Second
9452
#15
25.90.5
23.723.2
Auto9.3
Teleop16.2
End0.4
red by 10.1
1572
#24
15.80.3
16.616.4
Auto3.6
Teleop11.4
End0.8
Third
2658
#28
18.70.5
17.817.3
Auto9.2
Teleop8.6
End1.0
red by 11.9
9990
#20
6.80.4
7.06.6
Auto4.0
Teleop2.0
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
54%Melody oddsMissed32%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsMissed