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Red106
364723.8
688517.9
519938.9
Blue65
312820.9
271018.7
945225.9
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8270406010012010665

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.90.7
36.236.9
Auto9.5
Teleop23.0
End6.3
red by 13.0
9452
#15
25.90.3
25.625.2
Auto9.3
Teleop16.2
End0.4
Second
3647
#18
23.80.7
21.121.9
Auto5.1
Teleop17.3
End1.4
red by 2.9
3128
#22
20.90.3
20.620.3
Auto6.5
Teleop12.5
End1.9
Third
6885
#26
17.90.7
15.215.9
Auto6.0
Teleop10.9
End1.0
blue by 0.8
2710
#12
18.70.3
18.418.1
Auto7.2
Teleop10.5
End0.9