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Red32
91258.2
527417.8
107216.4
Blue65
641819.2
142521.8
696224.4
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4380020601001201403265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5274
#13
17.81.5
18.116.5
Auto4.8
Teleop11.2
End1.8
blue by 6.6
24.40.5
23.823.3
Auto12.0
Teleop11.8
End0.6
Second
1072
#32
16.41.5
16.414.9
Auto6.9
Teleop7.4
End2.1
blue by 5.5
1425
#16
21.80.5
23.422.9
Auto13.3
Teleop5.2
End3.3
Third
9125
#31Sur
8.21.5
8.56.9
Auto3.0
Teleop4.7
End0.4
blue by 11.0
6418
#26
19.20.5
20.920.5
Auto7.4
Teleop10.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
27%Melody oddsMissed60%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
21%Ensemble oddsEarned19%Ensemble oddsMissed