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Red41
35933.9
242919.5
441918.7
Blue57
420119.7
519938.3
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions867102040601001201401604157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
359
#3
33.92.5
33.330.8
Auto12.5
Teleop17.0
End4.4
blue by 4.4
38.30.7
37.636.8
Auto9.8
Teleop23.7
End4.7
Second
2429
#24
19.52.5
22.019.5
Auto8.9
Teleop9.6
End1.0
blue by 0.2
4201
#15
19.70.7
19.919.2
Auto5.8
Teleop12.8
End1.1
Third
4419
#14
18.72.5
20.718.2
Auto4.1
Teleop13.4
End1.2
red by 11.2
7.51.1
8.57.5
Auto4.4
Teleop2.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
42%Melody oddsMissed16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
26%Ensemble oddsMissed55%Ensemble oddsMissed