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Red68
569024.6
22597.6
449932.0
Blue61
372931.6
5688.6
438827.1
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions606340507080906861

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.00.2
26.526.7
Auto9.1
Teleop17.1
End5.9
red by 0.4
3729
#12
31.60.4
28.428.8
Auto13.3
Teleop16.7
End1.6
Second
5690
#22
24.60.2
22.923.1
Auto8.3
Teleop14.2
End2.0
blue by 2.6
27.10.4
18.819.1
Auto8.9
Teleop17.1
End1.2
Third
2259
#40
7.60.3
6.16.4
Auto1.9
Teleop4.5
End1.1
blue by 1.1
568
#30
8.60.6
8.18.7
Auto0.4
Teleop7.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
34%Melody oddsEarned74%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsEarned18%Ensemble oddsMissed