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Red43
441815.8
197713.5
316614.9
Blue9
294514.6
364815.6
99964.5
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions49580100200300400439

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4418
#21
15.80.2
18.418.2
Auto4.2
Teleop11.3
End0.4
red by 0.3
3648
#35
15.62.7
22.119.4
Auto5.1
Teleop9.2
End1.3
Second
3166
#39
14.90.2
12.312.2
Auto5.5
Teleop7.4
End1.9
red by 0.3
2945
#45
14.62.7
22.019.3
Auto6.8
Teleop7.3
End0.4
Third
1977
#20
13.50.2
14.714.5
Auto6.8
Teleop4.8
End1.9
red by 9.0
9996
#36
4.54.5
5.20.7
Auto1.0
Teleop2.9
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
35%Melody oddsMissed36%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
19%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed