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Red77
71620.9
346116.6
769417.2
Blue10
97109.5
37198.1
17814.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50340204060807710

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
716
#11
20.92.5
14.416.8
Auto8.7
Teleop10.9
End1.3
red by 6.7
178
#29
14.22.5
12.09.5
Auto6.2
Teleop6.7
End1.3
Second
17.21.5
13.815.3
Auto6.3
Teleop8.7
End2.1
red by 7.6
9710
#17
9.52.5
13.911.3
Auto4.3
Teleop5.0
End0.3
Third
3461
#15
16.62.5
15.417.9
Auto6.4
Teleop9.0
End1.2
red by 8.5
3719
#32
8.12.5
7.04.4
Auto2.5
Teleop4.6
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
22%Melody oddsEarned33%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed