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Red81
584223.7
555730.6
97287.7
Blue79
884123.0
80124.1
393216.9
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions617440801001208179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.61.3
28.329.6
Auto12.7
Teleop15.6
End2.4
red by 6.5
801
#18
24.10.6
25.424.8
Auto9.7
Teleop11.8
End2.6
Second
23.71.3
22.423.7
Auto7.4
Teleop14.3
End2.0
red by 0.7
23.00.6
23.122.6
Auto11.2
Teleop8.9
End2.9
Third
9728
#43
7.71.9
5.87.7
Auto2.6
Teleop4.3
End0.9
blue by 9.2
3932
#23
16.90.6
16.816.3
Auto5.2
Teleop9.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
54%Melody oddsEarned58%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed23%Ensemble oddsEarned