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Red35
38619.8
97115.7
96989.2
Blue95
18035.3
75008.4
581614.8
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions365302060803595

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
386
#5
19.80.0
16.816.8
Auto7.5
Teleop10.5
End1.8
blue by 15.5
180
#3
35.31.6
26.928.4
Auto12.2
Teleop20.5
End2.7
Second
9698
#33
9.20.0
7.47.5
Auto4.9
Teleop2.2
End2.1
blue by 5.5
14.82.6
12.415.1
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End0.9
Third
9711
#31
5.70.0
10.310.4
Auto3.1
Teleop1.8
End0.7
blue by 2.7
8.42.6
6.99.6
Auto4.1
Teleop3.3
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
15%Melody oddsMissed28%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsEarned