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Red34
8327.7
90574.5
529317.3
Blue27
85775.3
141419.1
68875.3
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions29292426283032343427

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
17.30.5
15.015.5
Auto6.9
Teleop9.8
End0.6
blue by 1.8
19.10.2
17.917.7
Auto7.0
Teleop11.7
End0.4
Second
832
#20
7.70.5
7.37.8
Auto3.9
Teleop3.0
End0.7
red by 2.4
6887
#38
5.30.1
6.16.0
Auto2.4
Teleop1.7
End1.2
Third
9057
#25
4.50.5
4.04.5
Auto3.1
Teleop0.8
End0.6
blue by 0.8
8577
#27
5.30.1
2.62.5
Auto2.4
Teleop2.3
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
10%Melody oddsMissed11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
4%Ensemble oddsMissed3%Ensemble oddsMissed