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Red127
205653.6
248621.1
528520.6
Blue86
969222.8
931234.8
87636.5
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1069605015020012786

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.60.0
56.756.7
Auto16.9
Teleop32.6
End4.2
red by 17.1
876
#23
36.50.1
36.136.0
Auto10.3
Teleop22.8
End3.4
Second
2486
#46
21.10.0
20.720.7
Auto6.6
Teleop13.6
End0.9
blue by 13.7
9312
#51
34.80.1
32.532.3
Auto10.4
Teleop22.6
End1.7
Third
5285
#52
20.60.0
17.517.5
Auto6.1
Teleop14.0
End0.5
blue by 2.2
9692
#47
22.80.1
19.619.4
Auto8.4
Teleop11.6
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
96%Melody oddsEarned87%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
57%Ensemble oddsEarned44%Ensemble oddsMissed