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Red134
102334.0
414334.3
17734.8
Blue102
157739.3
528520.6
600234.5
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1078950150200134102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
177
#11
34.82.6
32.335.0
Auto10.8
Teleop20.4
End3.6
blue by 4.5
1577
#31
39.31.3
35.937.2
Auto12.1
Teleop24.3
End2.9
Second
4143
#28
34.32.6
33.336.0
Auto11.0
Teleop20.4
End3.0
blue by 0.1
6002
#20
34.51.3
27.628.9
Auto11.6
Teleop17.3
End5.6
Third
34.02.6
28.931.5
Auto10.2
Teleop19.5
End4.3
red by 13.4
5285
#52
20.61.3
18.720.1
Auto6.1
Teleop14.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
98%Melody oddsEarned51%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
67%Ensemble oddsEarned73%Ensemble oddsMissed