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Red117
595141.2
246840.1
946213.8
Blue107
414334.3
34334.6
357238.1
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions106120050150200117107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.21.3
40.241.5
Auto13.3
Teleop24.3
End3.6
red by 3.1
3572
#15
38.10.3
34.734.4
Auto14.3
Teleop20.8
End3.0
Second
2468
#25
40.11.3
42.543.8
Auto5.9
Teleop31.0
End3.1
red by 5.4
343
#35
34.60.3
35.034.7
Auto11.0
Teleop18.1
End5.6
Third
9462
#72
13.81.3
14.515.8
Auto6.8
Teleop5.5
End1.6
blue by 20.5
4143
#28
34.30.3
36.836.5
Auto11.0
Teleop20.4
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
90%Melody oddsEarned95%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
73%Ensemble oddsMissed70%Ensemble oddsMissed