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Red103
504122.9
464630.0
252619.3
Blue101
284723.7
392823.9
52519.8
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions78740204060100120140160103101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.00.3
29.329.6
Auto12.9
Teleop14.7
End2.4
red by 6.2
3928
#23
23.90.5
23.924.4
Auto8.9
Teleop12.8
End2.1
Second
5041
#17
22.90.3
22.122.4
Auto9.3
Teleop11.4
End2.1
blue by 0.9
2847
#14
23.70.5
23.824.3
Auto9.8
Teleop10.0
End4.0
Third
2526
#10
19.30.3
18.618.9
Auto4.6
Teleop11.7
End3.0
blue by 0.5
525
#6
19.80.7
19.920.6
Auto8.5
Teleop9.6
End1.7