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Red48
99984.5
99998.3
641911.7
Blue23
99951.3
99975.8
99960.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions221103040506070804823

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
11.70.2
11.211.4
Auto5.3
Teleop5.4
End1.0
red by 5.9
5.80.3
3.23.0
Auto2.1
Teleop2.6
End0.9
Second
8.30.3
5.76.0
Auto2.9
Teleop4.1
End1.1
red by 7.0
9995
#12
1.30.3
-0.1-0.4
Auto1.1
Teleop-0.4
End0.5
Third
4.50.3
2.93.2
Auto0.3
Teleop3.2
End0.9
red by 3.9
9996
#10
0.60.3
2.82.5
Auto1.5
Teleop-1.1
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
3%Melody oddsMissed3%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
2%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsEarned