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Red50
674027.4
267910.9
432020.3
Blue60
82238.0
555420.9
193726.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions646240506070805060

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6740
#18
27.40.4
24.624.1
Auto9.6
Teleop15.7
End2.1
red by 1.5
1937
#21
26.00.2
28.228.4
Auto10.6
Teleop14.5
End0.8
Second
4320
#16
20.30.4
20.219.8
Auto6.4
Teleop11.4
End2.5
blue by 0.6
5554
#41
20.90.2
22.122.3
Auto10.8
Teleop7.8
End2.3
Third
2679
#31
10.90.4
11.911.4
Auto2.1
Teleop5.8
End2.9
red by 2.9
8223
#42
8.00.2
6.87.0
Auto3.9
Teleop3.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
54%Melody oddsEarned25%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
29%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsMissed