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Red50
43197.6
263015.9
321115.5
Blue75
706712.7
22308.8
169040.3
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions345802040801005075

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2630
#28
15.91.5
14.315.8
Auto8.6
Teleop7.4
End-0.2
blue by 24.5
40.31.8
33.635.4
Auto17.0
Teleop19.4
End4.0
Second
3211
#11
15.51.5
11.913.3
Auto7.0
Teleop7.1
End1.4
red by 2.9
7067
#18
12.71.8
10.712.5
Auto2.9
Teleop5.8
End4.0
Third
4319
#25
7.61.5
7.58.9
Auto4.6
Teleop2.5
End0.5
blue by 1.2
2230
#20
8.81.8
5.57.3
Auto4.0
Teleop3.3
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsMissed33%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed17%Ensemble oddsEarned