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Red104
445135.2
49427.3
978525.6
Blue80
558425.9
174732.7
501032.6
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions909605015020025010480

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4451
#48
35.21.5
27.629.1
Auto13.1
Teleop20.0
End2.1
red by 2.5
1747
#55
32.70.4
28.428.0
Auto9.4
Teleop20.5
End2.8
Second
494
#40
27.31.5
30.331.8
Auto5.3
Teleop17.1
End5.0
blue by 5.3
5010
#26
32.60.4
33.933.5
Auto9.0
Teleop20.9
End2.7
Third
9785
#50
25.61.5
24.325.8
Auto7.7
Teleop16.3
End1.6
blue by 0.4
5584
#46
25.90.4
24.023.6
Auto8.6
Teleop14.4
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
77%Melody oddsEarned73%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
68%Ensemble oddsEarned24%Ensemble oddsMissed