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Red68
24622.4
620111.5
860415.7
Blue4
84217.1
972916.0
35979.7
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4528010204050607080684

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
246
#24
22.41.3
19.420.7
Auto7.3
Teleop14.7
End0.4
red by 6.4
9729
#14
16.01.6
9.68.0
Auto4.4
Teleop9.7
End1.9
Second
8604
#29
15.72.1
10.412.5
Auto7.0
Teleop6.2
End2.5
red by 6.1
3597
#28
9.72.6
9.77.1
Auto2.7
Teleop6.6
End0.4
Third
6201
#27
11.51.3
9.210.5
Auto3.6
Teleop6.6
End1.3
red by 4.5
8421
#35
7.11.6
8.16.5
Auto3.7
Teleop2.6
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
42%Melody oddsEarned26%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed