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Red38
172112.4
454620.1
97298.6
Blue39
320510.9
107312.1
127717.8
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions425002060801003839

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4546
#10
20.10.2
19.018.8
Auto8.0
Teleop11.3
End0.8
red by 2.3
1277
#19
17.80.7
18.317.6
Auto5.4
Teleop9.8
End2.7
Second
1721
#23
12.40.2
11.911.7
Auto2.8
Teleop7.4
End2.2
red by 0.2
1073
#18
12.10.9
12.912.0
Auto4.8
Teleop7.2
End0.2
Third
9729
#28
8.60.2
7.77.5
Auto2.8
Teleop5.1
End0.7
blue by 2.3
3205
#24
10.90.9
13.412.5
Auto4.6
Teleop5.5
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
24%Melody oddsMissed42%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsMissed