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Red50
620111.8
8832.8
24615.5
Blue42
242312.9
271325.6
944317.4
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions726502040801001205042

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88
#1
32.81.3
34.333.0
Auto10.1
Teleop17.1
End5.5
red by 7.2
2713
#29
25.61.1
27.025.8
Auto8.0
Teleop16.7
End0.9
Second
246
#11
15.51.3
17.215.9
Auto5.9
Teleop10.1
End-0.5
blue by 2.0
9443
#15
17.41.1
18.817.7
Auto8.8
Teleop6.3
End2.3
Third
6201
#12
11.81.3
12.511.2
Auto5.3
Teleop5.7
End0.8
blue by 1.0
2423
#16
12.91.1
13.412.3
Auto4.3
Teleop7.0
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
69%Melody oddsEarned40%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
30%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsMissed