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Red70
15520.9
715314.2
318220.5
Blue55
17816.4
514221.5
174029.2
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions577620401001207055

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
155
#12
20.91.0
19.720.7
Auto8.5
Teleop10.3
End2.2
blue by 8.3
29.20.8
28.828.1
Auto12.9
Teleop13.3
End3.0
Second
3182
#10
20.51.0
19.420.3
Auto8.1
Teleop9.5
End2.9
blue by 1.1
5142
#11
21.50.8
21.420.6
Auto8.0
Teleop10.9
End2.6
Third
7153
#24
14.21.0
14.415.4
Auto5.2
Teleop6.6
End2.4
blue by 2.2
178
#28
16.40.8
16.115.4
Auto4.7
Teleop9.4
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
32%Melody oddsEarned85%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
32%Ensemble oddsMissed17%Ensemble oddsEarned