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Red64
450511.7
83624.6
632618.6
Blue41
86228.8
58418.2
511515.5
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions49391020306070806441

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
836
#4
24.61.1
18.819.9
Auto12.7
Teleop9.4
End2.5
red by 9.1
15.50.2
18.318.5
Auto6.4
Teleop7.3
End1.9
Second
18.61.1
16.617.7
Auto8.3
Teleop8.0
End2.3
red by 9.8
8622
#30
8.80.2
7.77.9
Auto5.3
Teleop2.3
End1.2
Third
4505
#17
11.71.1
7.78.7
Auto5.8
Teleop5.3
End0.7
red by 3.5
5841
#34
8.20.2
10.510.7
Auto5.7
Teleop2.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
16%Melody oddsEarned13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
31%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed