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Red76
14466.9
68622.5
172727.1
Blue57
29005.2
88822.3
907225.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions52524060707657

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.11.8
22.624.4
Auto11.6
Teleop14.7
End0.8
red by 1.8
25.30.4
21.521.9
Auto9.9
Teleop14.7
End0.7
Second
686
#11
22.51.8
18.520.3
Auto11.3
Teleop10.7
End0.4
red by 0.2
888
#10
22.30.4
20.921.3
Auto10.0
Teleop10.9
End1.4
Third
1446
#27
6.91.8
5.47.2
Auto2.4
Teleop4.0
End0.5
red by 1.7
2900
#25
5.20.4
5.15.5
Auto3.1
Teleop1.1
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsEarned67%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed