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Red107
97328.7
568735.6
632947.0
Blue73
490613.4
910117.0
615320.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10646020608012014016010773

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.00.4
46.346.7
Auto14.2
Teleop29.7
End3.2
red by 26.5
20.50.5
19.920.4
Auto6.7
Teleop13.2
End0.7
Second
35.60.4
34.835.2
Auto9.0
Teleop24.9
End1.7
red by 18.5
9101
#12
17.00.5
16.416.9
Auto7.2
Teleop9.2
End0.7
Third
9732
#21
8.70.4
7.98.3
Auto5.5
Teleop3.2
End-0.0
blue by 4.7
4906
#20
13.40.5
12.813.3
Auto3.8
Teleop7.6
End2.0