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Red46
97753.5
370722.2
21713.3
Blue61
721118.8
46921.0
47377.7
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions37511020306070804661

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.21.2
13.414.6
Auto6.5
Teleop13.1
End2.6
red by 1.2
469
#3
21.00.8
15.614.8
Auto4.5
Teleop14.6
End2.0
Second
217
#24
13.31.2
12.814.0
Auto3.9
Teleop8.4
End1.0
blue by 5.5
18.80.8
16.916.1
Auto6.7
Teleop9.8
End2.4
Third
9775
#39
3.57.3
3.110.3
Auto2.0
Teleop1.0
End0.5
blue by 4.1
4737
#37
7.70.8
11.710.9
Auto2.5
Teleop4.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsMissed25%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed