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Red34
657021.5
75984.9
88329.6
Blue49
6612.9
837317.5
71479.4
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3839203050603449

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.50.1
19.719.7
Auto4.3
Teleop14.8
End2.4
red by 4.0
8373
#17
17.50.6
13.514.2
Auto6.6
Teleop8.9
End2.0
Second
8832
#32
9.60.1
10.09.9
Auto5.5
Teleop3.9
End0.3
blue by 3.3
66
#19
12.90.8
11.912.7
Auto3.4
Teleop6.1
End3.4
Third
7598
#33
4.90.1
5.35.2
Auto1.5
Teleop2.6
End0.8
blue by 4.5
7147
#35
9.40.8
8.99.7
Auto4.1
Teleop3.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsMissed9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed29%Ensemble oddsMissed