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Red70
6816.8
22626.3
317520.7
Blue117
50323.7
2743.2
283221.5
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8210305015020025070117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
226
#8
26.30.6
31.430.9
Auto13.1
Teleop11.3
End1.8
blue by 17.0
27
#2
43.21.0
43.344.3
Auto16.1
Teleop23.8
End3.4
Second
20.70.6
24.523.9
Auto10.8
Teleop9.3
End0.5
blue by 3.0
503
#4
23.71.0
24.725.8
Auto13.4
Teleop9.2
End1.0
Third
68
#25
16.80.6
20.519.9
Auto8.0
Teleop6.8
End1.9
blue by 4.7
2832
#12
21.51.0
22.823.8
Auto10.7
Teleop9.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
79%Melody oddsEarned84%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
31%Ensemble oddsMissed16%Ensemble oddsMissed