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Red61
509021.8
81518.6
60298.5
Blue52
506717.1
92268.8
842710.5
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5636020801006152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5090
#12
21.80.3
21.721.9
Auto11.5
Teleop8.5
End1.8
red by 4.7
5067
#13
17.10.2
16.716.9
Auto6.7
Teleop8.6
End1.8
Second
815
#3
18.60.3
18.518.8
Auto8.5
Teleop7.8
End2.2
red by 8.1
8427
#14
10.50.2
10.110.2
Auto3.2
Teleop5.4
End1.9
Third
6029
#25
8.50.3
8.48.6
Auto3.2
Teleop3.5
End1.8
blue by 0.3
9226
#32
8.80.2
8.48.6
Auto2.5
Teleop6.3
End0.0