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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions110974060801201401601808492

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2611
#24
35.01.0
36.235.3
Auto13.5
Teleop20.4
End1.1
red by 2.6
4130
#10
32.40.2
34.534.7
Auto10.3
Teleop20.2
End1.9
Second
5436
#12
32.31.0
37.536.5
Auto9.6
Teleop19.9
End2.8
red by 0.2
32.10.2
30.831.0
Auto9.7
Teleop17.3
End5.2
Third
1481
#21
24.71.0
24.723.7
Auto13.5
Teleop9.6
End1.6
blue by 1.3
7501
#25
26.00.2
24.224.4
Auto12.2
Teleop12.3
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
97%Melody oddsEarned94%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
24%Ensemble oddsMissed35%Ensemble oddsEarned