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Red48
954810.2
715419.4
258620.2
Blue59
776816.8
972210.3
553415.4
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3435203040504859

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.20.9
12.313.3
Auto9.0
Teleop9.0
End2.3
red by 3.5
16.83.0
13.016.0
Auto8.5
Teleop6.8
End1.5
Second
7154
#12
19.40.9
13.013.9
Auto11.4
Teleop7.1
End0.9
red by 3.9
5534
#33
15.43.0
10.513.6
Auto6.2
Teleop6.5
End2.7
Third
9548
#31
10.20.9
7.28.1
Auto5.0
Teleop2.9
End2.3
blue by 0.2
9722
#22
10.33.0
6.19.2
Auto5.4
Teleop4.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
17%Melody oddsMissed11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed