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Red54
387522.2
96388.6
556722.4
Blue79
956617.8
608135.5
87678.8
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions55642040801005479

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5567
#26
22.40.2
21.822.0
Auto8.9
Teleop10.2
End3.3
blue by 13.1
6081
#15
35.50.5
31.732.2
Auto10.8
Teleop21.8
End3.0
Second
22.20.2
20.821.0
Auto6.5
Teleop12.3
End3.4
red by 4.4
9566
#14
17.80.5
16.216.6
Auto4.3
Teleop12.1
End1.4
Third
9638
#31
8.60.2
8.48.6
Auto4.5
Teleop2.8
End1.3
blue by 0.1
8767
#28
8.80.5
9.19.6
Auto1.4
Teleop5.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
56%Melody oddsEarned78%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
56%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed