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Red53
78557.2
508615.7
353620.9
Blue22
554711.9
524711.4
550518.7
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4146305060705322

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.90.3
14.915.2
Auto7.4
Teleop12.1
End1.5
red by 2.3
5505
#11
18.71.7
16.614.9
Auto8.6
Teleop8.4
End1.6
Second
5086
#10
15.70.3
17.217.6
Auto6.0
Teleop6.7
End2.9
red by 3.8
5547
#13
11.91.7
12.410.6
Auto4.6
Teleop6.3
End1.0
Third
7855
#38
7.20.6
8.99.5
Auto4.3
Teleop2.1
End0.8
blue by 4.2
5247
#33
11.41.7
8.77.0
Auto3.6
Teleop6.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsEarned18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsMissed