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Red70
159621.4
548613.3
57068.8
Blue33
63459.9
91888.1
720215.1
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions49320204060807033

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.41.5
23.625.2
Auto9.8
Teleop9.4
End2.1
red by 6.3
7202
#27
15.10.2
13.313.4
Auto7.5
Teleop6.1
End1.4
Second
5486
#25
13.31.5
11.212.8
Auto3.2
Teleop9.7
End0.4
red by 3.4
6345
#34
9.90.2
10.110.3
Auto3.8
Teleop3.8
End2.2
Third
5706
#30
8.81.5
7.38.8
Auto4.1
Teleop3.4
End1.3
red by 0.7
9188
#42
8.10.2
7.37.4
Auto3.3
Teleop3.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
28%Melody oddsEarned11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed5%Ensemble oddsMissed