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Red68
725011.6
496725.9
656924.7
Blue48
521312.0
258627.2
360220.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions64613040507080901006848

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.90.7
25.326.0
Auto7.5
Teleop16.3
End2.1
blue by 1.4
27.20.5
26.425.9
Auto12.0
Teleop13.3
End1.9
Second
24.70.7
24.325.0
Auto10.7
Teleop11.8
End2.1
red by 4.1
20.60.5
18.417.9
Auto6.0
Teleop11.9
End2.7
Third
7250
#19
11.61.0
8.29.2
Auto6.0
Teleop4.6
End1.1
blue by 0.4
5213
#29
12.00.5
10.610.1
Auto1.8
Teleop8.3
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
42%Melody oddsEarned40%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsMissed