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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4928020406080586

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.51.6
17.919.5
Auto12.5
Teleop14.3
End2.7
red by 22.5
4961
#22
7.12.5
9.77.3
Auto3.1
Teleop2.7
End1.3
Second
7225
#25
13.71.6
11.413.0
Auto4.3
Teleop8.2
End1.2
red by 9.8
7813
#38
3.92.5
9.26.7
Auto2.0
Teleop1.4
End0.6
Third
7660
#23
11.61.6
12.414.0
Auto5.0
Teleop4.7
End1.9
red by 8.0
9735
#36
3.62.5
4.26.7
Auto1.9
Teleop0.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
24%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed